Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a51…ce14 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$520 (-25%) realized −$514 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$428
other 7% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -49.5% -54.3% 18% 18% -39.8%
≤30d 38 -49.5% -54.3% 18% 18% -39.8%
≤90d 38 -49.5% -54.3% 18% 18% -39.8%
all 38 -49.5% -54.3% 18% 18% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.3% 18% -39.8%
10% -58.6% 13% -45.6%
15% -62.6% 13% -50.8%
20% -66.3% 13% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$27 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized−$514
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 31
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage5d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 65¢ $453 $447 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $218 +$39 +18%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $263 +$56 +21%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $203 +$161 +79%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $202 −$200 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 +$18 +595%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 +$18 +118%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$13 +262%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$19 +126%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $233 −$229 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $200 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $257 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $218 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 16h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $319 17h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $263 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 19h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $363 21h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 22h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 23h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 46h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.52 · official $446.52 (match) · 54 history records