Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a53…71a3 sports 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$136 (-4%) realized −$100 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate56%78W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$28
14 days−$30
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$147
world 2% +$7
other 2% −$36
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.3% -20.7% 50% 28% -14.6%
≤30d 75 -6.9% -15.8% 53% 41% -15.9%
≤90d 106 -6.0% -14.9% 58% 45% -12.4%
all 139 -7.4% -16.2% 56% 43% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 43% -13.6%
10% -24.2% 29% -21.9%
15% -31.5% 24% -29.4%
20% -38.2% 15% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses78 / 61
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)139 / 141
History coverage114d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) Power Rangers 62¢ 50¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Estar Backs 92¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $19 +$18 +98%
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$6 +109%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $10 −$4 -37%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 18 $30 −$4 -13%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $29 +$12 +41%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 17 $49 +$2 +4%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 17 $50 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs VP.Prodigy (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $5 +$3 +68%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $9 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $8 +$1 +11%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $31 −$18 -56%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$14 +137%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $6 +$3 +50%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $6 +$5 +79%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 03 $59 −$20 -34%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 03 $32 +$6 +18%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $10 +$12 +113%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 03 $5 +$6 +112%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $65 −$36 -56%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $40 −$38 -95%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 02 $20 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $20 +$14 +68%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $93 +$22 +24%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $9 +$5 +50%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 01 $48 +$9 +18%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Inner Circle (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 01 $20 +$3 +17%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western E Jun 01 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: F9 Team vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $20 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: BALU vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Clo Jun 01 $20 +$2 +9%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Pipsqueak+4 (+1.5) May 31 $20 +$8 +42%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western E May 31 $34 +$2 +5%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western May 31 $40 +$3 +8%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner May 31 $20 +$3 +14%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) BUY Power Rangers 62¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 92¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Amaru Gaming 27¢ $11 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 48¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Estar Backs 49¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 99¢ $37 2h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 49¢ $19 2h
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) SELL Flame Team 100¢ $11 3h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 45¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 43¢ $6 7h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 66¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $41 8h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 70¢ $29 9h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 48¢ $10 12h
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY Flame Team 47¢ $5 12h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $10 12h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 94¢ $50 20h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $51 21h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $49 27h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $16 27h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 75¢ $15 27h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 98¢ $48 28h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 94¢ $40 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 31h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 88¢ $20 32h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $20 34h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International SELL GamerLegion 90¢ $49 34h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $54 34h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 92¢ $50 34h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 92¢ $50 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.29 · official $24.29 (match) · 333 history records