Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9A 0x9a55…2019 other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$18
politics 40% −$19
sports 5% −$12
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 116 -3.8% -12.9% 3% 1% -9.7%
all 130 -1.1% -10.5% 8% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 5% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 4% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×8.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage114d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $269 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $250 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $727 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $256 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $213 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $290 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $222 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $260 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $216 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $498 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $496 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $262 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $274 $0 -0%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $275 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $205 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $266 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $290 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $221 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $242 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $286 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $280 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $250 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $273 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $249 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $263 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $278 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 26 $222 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $206 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $255 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $269 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $279 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $239 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $264 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $211 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 24h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 5d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 8d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $285 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $285 26d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $256 27d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $256 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $213 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $213 29d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 29d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $290 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $290 30d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $222 30d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 30d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $227 30d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $227 30d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $260 30d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 31d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $260 32d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $260 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 379 history records