Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:54:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a55…d76a weather 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$55 (-11%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$38
other 17% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.5% -18.2% 0% 0% -20.8%
≤30d 19 -9.5% -18.2% 0% 0% -20.8%
≤90d 19 -9.5% -18.2% 0% 0% -20.8%
all 19 -9.5% -18.2% 0% 0% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -20.8%
10% -26.0% 0% -28.3%
15% -33.1% 0% -35.3%
20% -39.7% 0% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 30? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 30? Jun 29 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 30? Jun 29 $41 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30? Jun 28 $46 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? Jun 28 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 29? Jun 28 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? Jun 27 $0 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? Jun 27 $45 −$9 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 28? Jun 27 $46 −$2 -3%
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 26 $44 −$13 -29%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 26 $41 −$10 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? Jun 25 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? Jun 25 $3 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 27? Jun 25 $41 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 25 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 27? Jun 25 $24 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 27? Jun 25 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 25 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? Jun 25 $47 −$12 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 30? SELL No 78¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 30? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 81¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30? SELL No 60¢ $41 11h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 30? BUY No 67¢ $46 11h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 37¢ $24 20h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 29? SELL No 82¢ $36 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 29? BUY No 84¢ $37 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? SELL No 53¢ $26 40h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? SELL No 54¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? SELL No 54¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? SELL No 54¢ $3 40h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? SELL No 54¢ $4 41h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $45 41h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 28? SELL No 57¢ $45 45h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 59¢ $46 45h
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 2d
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by September 30, 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $44 2d
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $31 2d
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $41 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? SELL No 62¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 63¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? SELL No 59¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.58 (match) · 50 history records