Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9A 0x9a57…edd2 crypto 1318 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$351 (-4%) realized −$349 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%650W / 667L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day46.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days−$54
30 days−$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$486
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -3.2% -12.4% 75% 34% -9.0%
≤30d 1197 -5.8% -14.7% 49% 46% -12.8%
≤90d 1317 -6.2% -15.2% 49% 46% -13.0%
all 1317 -6.2% -15.2% 49% 46% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 46% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 42% -21.3%
15% -30.7% 42% -28.9%
20% -37.5% 39% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$349
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses650 / 667
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1317 / 1318
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day46.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 50¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 50¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 284 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $9 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.00 · official $40.00 (match) · 3500 history records