Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a59…a844 crypto 500 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,092 (-12%) realized −$4,867 · open −$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%144W / 355L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 103d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8,400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -8.8% -17.5% 41% 36% -8.0%
≤30d 34 +7.0% -3.2% 38% 35% -4.8%
≤90d 424 -43.8% -49.1% 22% 21% -41.0%
all 499 -25.0% -32.2% 29% 28% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 28% -28.4%
10% -38.6% 27% -35.3%
15% -44.6% 27% -41.5%
20% -50.0% 25% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$71 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,867
Unrealized−$225
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses144 / 355
Open positions1
Markets (closed)499 / 500
History coverage103d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $225 $0 −$225 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $316 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $86 −$82 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $158 +$224 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $210 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $79 +$374 +472%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET Jun 25 $281 +$151 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$77 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $53 +$29 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$70 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $157 +$121 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1PM ET Jun 06 $315 −$137 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $106 −$49 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $326 +$193 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $211 +$249 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 06 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $159 +$94 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 06 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 06 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $520 +$227 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $106 −$50 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 21 $110 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 21 $26 +$56 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 21 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1PM ET May 21 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 21 $94 +$60 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 21 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 21 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 21 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 21 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 21 $174 −$102 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 21 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 21 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 21 $42 −$40 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $86 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $302 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $198 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $453 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $71 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.44 (match) · 1160 history records