Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9a5b…aad6
other · 13 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$146 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$149 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$80
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage153d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%
Chart Positions 4 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+30%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $27 $23 −$3 (-12%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-12%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? May 03 $104 −$86 -83%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta National Invita Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Apr 11 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31? Mar 17 $10 −$7 -68%
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight? Jan 27 $130 +$60 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% −$141
sports 11% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 34h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 5d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 41d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 41d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 42d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43d
Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta National Invita BUY Yes 4¢ $0 64d
Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta National Invita BUY Yes 4¢ $4 64d
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? SELL Yes 72¢ $22 64d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 5¢ $18 64d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 5¢ $47 64d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 65d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 65d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 66d
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-62.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 8 -71.4% -74.1% 12% 0% -67.4%
all 9 -58.4% -62.3% 22% 11% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.3% 11% -28.1%
10% -65.9% 11% -34.9%
15% -69.2% 11% -41.2%
20% -72.2% 0% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.10 · official $80.25 (match) · 59 history records