Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9a5b…d952 weather 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,713 (-14%) realized −$1,711 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$679per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,848now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$425
7 days−$430
14 days−$1,731
30 days−$1,731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% −$2,510
finance 21% +$144
other 13% +$120
world 4% +$641
economics 2% −$5
politics 2% −$33
tech 2% −$84
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.8% -16.6% 57% 29% -15.4%
≤30d 14 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 43% -25.3%
≤90d 14 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 43% -25.3%
all 14 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 43% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 43% -25.3%
10% -19.3% 14% -32.5%
15% -27.1% 14% -39.0%
20% -34.3% 14% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$453 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,848
Realized−$1,711
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage11d
Avg bet$679
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $1,000 $1,120 +$120 (+12%)
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? No 77¢ 76¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? No 86¢ 76¢ $300 $267 −$33 (-11%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 85¢ 56¢ $250 $166 −$84 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $503 +$75 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $706 +$100 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1,410 −$164 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $811 −$566 -70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 23 $2,343 +$103 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $801 +$26 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$5 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $209 +$41 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $243 −$243 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $310 +$310 +100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $160 +$325 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,215 −$839 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $917 −$900 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $49 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $578 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,018 8h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 16h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 34¢ $545 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 86¢ $503 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? SELL No 95¢ $806 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 84¢ $504 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? SELL No 78¢ $1,246 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 78¢ $202 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? SELL No 26¢ $16 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? SELL No 23¢ $230 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 72¢ $811 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 86¢ $604 31h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1,333 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 86¢ $805 41h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $827 41h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 36¢ $615 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $46 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $51 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 85¢ $251 2d
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? BUY No 86¢ $302 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $701 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $100 2d
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY No 77¢ $303 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $86 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $137 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $21 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $306 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 65¢ $814 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 87¢ $1,113 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,848.44 · official $1,848.51 (match) · 49 history records