Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9a5d…4261 other 546 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 222d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,629 (+1%) realized +$2,756 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate86%447W / 75L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$559per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$9,470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$230
14 days+$215
30 days+$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1,523
world 18% −$2,820
sports 11% +$1,392
economics 10% +$332
politics 5% +$267
finance 4% +$593
crypto 3% +$388
tech 1% +$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -10.1% -18.6% 67% 17% -13.6%
≤30d 59 +0.4% -9.1% 86% 20% -7.1%
≤90d 159 +2.4% -7.3% 87% 16% -10.9%
all 522 +7.5% -2.8% 86% 13% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 13% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -17.6%
15% -20.6% 3% -25.6%
20% -28.3% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$509) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$80 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$9,470
Realized+$2,756
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses447 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions24
Markets (closed)522 / 546
History coverage223d ⚠
Avg bet$559
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 522 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 89¢ 74¢ $2,103 $1,733 −$370 (-18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 88¢ 98¢ $927 $1,032 +$105 (+11%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $636 $663 +$27 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $573 $576 +$3 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 93¢ $537 $556 +$19 (+4%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $456 $496 +$39 (+9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $490 $493 +$4 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $488 $488 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $484 $484 −$0 (-0%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $474 $472 −$2 (-0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $355 $388 +$33 (+9%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $288 $298 +$10 (+3%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $293 $297 +$4 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $291 $292 +$1 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $284 $281 −$3 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 88¢ $274 $265 −$9 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $194 $198 +$5 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $187 $197 +$11 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 87¢ 99¢ $85 $98 +$12 (+15%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $75 $78 +$3 (+4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 68¢ 50¢ $68 $49 −$18 (-27%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 67¢ 81¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $35 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $558 −$291 -52%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $2,845 +$85 +3%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $37 +$2 +5%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $95 +$6 +6%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $509 +$10 +2%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 14 $246 +$29 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $351 −$21 -6%
Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $251 −$77 -31%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $160 +$40 +25%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $515 +$12 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $195 −$93 -48%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $67 +$2 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $391 +$8 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $881 +$115 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1,306 +$65 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1,693 +$41 +2%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 12 $1,715 +$51 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1,229 +$50 +4%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $427 +$10 +2%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 12 $364 +$33 +9%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 11 $476 +$19 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 10 $2,233 +$104 +5%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $105 +$12 +11%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +11%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$2 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $188 +$12 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $667 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $285 +$6 +2%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $248 +$10 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $60 +$5 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $289 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $476 +$205 +43%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 04 $72 +$9 +13%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $228 +$10 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 02 $380 +$8 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $84 −$43 -51%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on May 11? Jun 01 $15 −$13 -84%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on May 13? Jun 01 $29 −$29 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $859 +$21 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 31 $482 +$10 +2%
Will BNK FEARX qualify to MSI 2026? May 31 $129 +$7 +6%
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? May 30 $58 +$5 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $29 +$4 +15%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? May 29 $80 +$19 +24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $27 +$3 +12%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $396 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $484 1h
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $696 6h
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $10 12h
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $98 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $291 17h
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $54 19h
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $137 25h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $152 43h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $133 44h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $7 44h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $5 44h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $9 44h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 78¢ $156 45h
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 92¢ $35 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 68¢ $68 2d
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 96¢ $38 3d
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 92¢ $12 3d
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 91¢ $25 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 93¢ $186 3d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 95¢ $32 3d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 95¢ $32 3d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 95¢ $67 3d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 95¢ $27 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $498 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 94¢ $55 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 94¢ $45 3d
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 100¢ $101 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 94¢ $464 4d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 95¢ $162 4d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m SELL Yes 100¢ $519 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,470.36 · official $9,470.36 (match) · 3500 history records