Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a5f…2c0c other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$187 (-71%) realized −$185 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%7W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$97
sports 42% −$84
world 2% −$4
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-61.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +156.6% +132.1% 100% 100% +132.8%
≤30d 2 +156.6% +132.1% 100% 100% +132.8%
≤90d 49 -57.9% -61.9% 14% 14% -73.8%
all 49 -57.9% -61.9% 14% 14% -73.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.9% 14% -73.8%
10% -65.6% 12% -76.3%
15% -68.9% 12% -78.6%
20% -71.9% 12% -80.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$185
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses7 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage89d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-30? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Real Betis win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-03-30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers 76ers 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
United States vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Over 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Xavi Hernandez be appointed as manager of Tottenham? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Over 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? No 6¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-31? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Colombia vs. France: O/U 4.5 Over 34¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? No 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +150%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +163%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jamaica win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $15 −$15 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $4 +$4 +101%
Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 sea Mar 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Betis win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 +$6 +612%
Will Robert De Zerbi be appointed as manager of Tottenham? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Xavi Hernandez be appointed as manager of Tottenham? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Villarreal finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Egypt vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-30? Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Duke Blue Devils vs. UCLA Bruins (W) Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Colombia vs. France: O/U 4.5 Mar 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw? Mar 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brazil vs. France end in a draw? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $14 +$9 +62%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $3 +$7 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 10¢ $5 48d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 68d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 71d
Spurs vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 30¢ $4 71d
Spurs vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 25¢ $3 71d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 71d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 71d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 71d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 71d
Will Jamaica win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 75d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 75d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 75d
Will Jamaica win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 75d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 75d
Will Jamaica win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 75d
United States vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 75d
Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $8 75d
Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 12¢ $1 75d
Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 45¢ $4 75d
Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $4 75d
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 sea BUY Yes 10¢ $5 75d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 25¢ $5 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 97 history records