Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a60…0df7 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+5%) realized +$25 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$24
other 42% +$69
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -1.4% -10.8% 58% 55% -5.5%
≤30d 31 -1.4% -10.8% 58% 55% -5.5%
≤90d 31 -1.4% -10.8% 58% 55% -5.5%
all 31 -1.4% -10.8% 58% 55% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 55% -5.5%
10% -19.3% 42% -14.6%
15% -27.1% 42% -22.8%
20% -34.3% 26% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 77¢ $41 $51 +$10 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $84 −$8 -10%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $50 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 25 $8 +$6 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $99 +$14 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $5 −$1 -20%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $9 +$11 +123%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $10 +$8 +76%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $10 +$8 +76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $75 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $28 +$12 +43%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $6 +$5 +76%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$13 +123%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$7 +64%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $56 +$9 +16%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $47 +$9 +19%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$21 +145%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $14 +$6 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $42 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 81¢ $34 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Virtus.pro 20¢ $34 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 28¢ $50 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 70¢ $50 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy $4 5h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 31¢ $10 6h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 36¢ $10 6h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $10 6h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $14 6h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 56¢ $8 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $89 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 20¢ $4 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 45¢ $10 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 19h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 SELL Under $0 20h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 38¢ $4 21h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 21h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 21h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 22h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $9 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers $1 26h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $18 26h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $18 27h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 56¢ $10 28h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.56 · official $85.80 · 64 history records