Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a61…7da4 weather 96 markets active 1d ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized +$7 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%15W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% −$4
other 3% −$12
culture 2% +$1
sports 1% +$1
politics 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 +1.1% -8.6% 17% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 95 -27.8% -34.7% 16% 0% -9.4%
all 95 -27.8% -34.7% 16% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -41.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -46.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -51.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×6.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses15 / 80
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage57d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? No 96¢ $14 $1 −$13 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 7? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 30? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $13 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 30? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on May May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 27? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k an May 22 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 17? May 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 16? May 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 16? May 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 14? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 14? May 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on May 6 May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on May 6? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on May 6? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 5? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 5? May 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's video get between 69 and 70 million views on day 4? May 05 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 5? May 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 5? May 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or higher on May 4? May 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes $0 32h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY No 96¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY No 92¢ $13 8d
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? SELL No 99¢ $12 9d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $13 9d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on June 8? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? BUY No 98¢ $12 10d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 7? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 7? BUY Yes $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $12 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? BUY Yes $0 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $13 12d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5? BUY Yes $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.11 · official $65.10 (match) · 306 history records