Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a67…024e sports 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$138 (+7%) realized +$100 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%79W / 83L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$34
14 days−$33
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$64
other 31% +$110
world 11% −$67
crypto 5% +$9
politics 5% −$1
finance 2% +$6
culture 1% +$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +11.1% +0.5% 61% 52% -3.1%
≤30d 86 +21.8% +10.2% 57% 52% -0.9%
≤90d 162 +12.4% +1.7% 49% 42% -4.6%
all 162 +12.4% +1.7% 49% 42% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 42% -4.6%
10% -8.0% 33% -13.7%
15% -16.9% 23% -22.1%
20% -25.1% 19% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses79 / 83
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions45
Markets (closed)162 / 207
History coverage48d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 56¢ 84¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+49%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 63¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+5%)
Piracicaba: Wilson Leite vs Filipe Bullamah Wilson Leite 91¢ 90¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen Greet Minnen 84¢ 84¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Taylor Fritz 83¢ 82¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 69¢ 90¢ $20 $27 +$6 (+31%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 74¢ 74¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 75¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 95¢ $16 $18 +$3 (+16%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? No 33¢ 61¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+85%)
Will Uruguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 95¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 88¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 65¢ $14 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 58¢ 54¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 98¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 99¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+26%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 80¢ 77¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+166%)
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $33 −$10 -31%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $25 +$7 +26%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $25 +$14 +57%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Austria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $19 −$1 -7%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $22 −$2 -10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $26 −$25 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $22 +$6 +26%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $12 +$6 +48%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 +$3 +23%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5) Jun 19 $12 −$1 -9%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $24 +$28 +119%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $17 +$8 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $39 −$4 -11%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $13 +$9 +70%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $22 +$7 +29%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $22 +$3 +14%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $26 +$5 +21%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $23 +$2 +11%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $21 −$20 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -92%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $19 +$6 +31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $20 +$2 +11%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $23 +$5 +23%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $9 +$6 +75%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $8 +$4 +49%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 08 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $19 +$25 +137%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Donna Vekic vs Carole Monnet Jun 07 $11 +$1 +7%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $12 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $8 +$4 +55%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Marc Polmans Jun 06 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $4 +$48 +1197%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $9 +$3 +31%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 04 $12 −$3 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $9 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $23 57m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Taylor Fritz 83¢ $29 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Greet Minnen BUY Greet Minnen 84¢ $30 1h
Piracicaba: Wilson Leite vs Filipe Bullamah BUY Wilson Leite 91¢ $32 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $25 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 66¢ $23 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 93¢ $23 37h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $25 2d
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 2d
Will Austria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $17 2d
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $18 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $18 2d
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 71¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 74¢ $25 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 82¢ $26 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Zeynep Sonmez 71¢ $18 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 4d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $18 4d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 56¢ $25 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $24 5d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Ann Li 69¢ $17 5d
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 58¢ $13 7d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 77¢ $22 7d
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 82¢ $26 7d
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Kyrgios (+1.5) BUY Kyrgios 54¢ $12 8d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 64¢ $21 8d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 87¢ $22 8d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY No 90¢ $23 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $1 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $29 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.81 · official $468.82 (match) · 350 history records