Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9A 0x9a6c…fedc crypto 321 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$286 (-6%) realized −$285 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%196W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$324
sports 7% −$27
world 0% −$20
other 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 50% -9.8%
≤30d 81 -4.7% -13.8% 48% 46% -20.4%
≤90d 319 -7.1% -16.0% 61% 60% -15.9%
all 319 -7.1% -16.0% 61% 60% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 60% -15.9%
10% -24.0% 41% -24.0%
15% -31.3% 23% -31.3%
20% -38.1% 15% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$285
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses196 / 123
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)319 / 321
History coverage37d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 36¢ 34¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$34 +165%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$2 -15%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$21 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$6 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 03 $42 −$35 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 03 $31 −$13 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 03 $21 +$33 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 03 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 02 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 02 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 29 $21 +$26 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 29 $21 +$33 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 29 $21 +$20 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 9¢ $9 17h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $20 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $10 19h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $20 19h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $31 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $15 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $20 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $7 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.88 · official $48.89 (match) · 636 history records