Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9A 0x9a6e…3256 crypto 575 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$533 (-1%) realized −$531 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate76%435W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$62
14 days+$101
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,083
world 4% +$222
other 1% −$117
sports 0% +$29
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.0% -7.7% 70% 70% -3.9%
≤30d 199 -4.7% -13.8% 74% 35% -8.9%
≤90d 573 -2.9% -12.1% 76% 32% -11.7%
all 573 -2.9% -12.1% 76% 32% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 32% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 22% -20.2%
15% -28.2% 15% -27.9%
20% -35.3% 8% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$30 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$531
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses435 / 138
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)573 / 575
History coverage41d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 573 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $121 $127 +$6 (+5%)
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? No 89¢ 81¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $159 +$29 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $201 −$155 -77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $160 +$102 +64%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $130 +$26 +20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$16 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$20 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $38 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $60 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$61 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 30 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 30 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 30 $83 −$45 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $159 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $98 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 20¢ $45 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $262 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $160 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $156 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $120 43h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.81 · official $218.81 (match) · 1389 history records