Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a76…6dfd politics 17 markets active 17h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$1
sports 24% $0
crypto 18% $0
economics 12% $0
other 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage103d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $99 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $99 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $99 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $99 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $101 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Mar 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $101 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $98 17h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $98 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $98 6d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $99 14d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $99 15d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $99 26d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $99 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $99 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $99 36d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 38d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 39d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $99 42d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $99 42d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $99 46d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $99 46d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $100 67d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $100 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 99¢ $100 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $101 69d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $101 71d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $101 71d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $101 75d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $101 75d
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $101 81d
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $84 81d
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $17 81d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $101 85d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $101 85d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 90d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.44 · official $98.44 (match) · 45 history records