Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a79…0cec other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$7 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$22
crypto 9% −$29
sports 2% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +110.0% +90.0% 67% 67% +51.7%
≤30d 8 +13.3% +2.5% 38% 38% -14.0%
≤90d 8 +13.3% +2.5% 38% 38% -14.0%
all 8 +13.3% +2.5% 38% 38% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 38% -14.0%
10% -7.3% 25% -22.2%
15% -16.3% 25% -29.8%
20% -24.5% 12% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage10d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $59 $56 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 +$18 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $9 +$34 +388%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $32 −$1 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $104 −$35 -33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $65 +$9 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $60 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $42 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 52¢ $30 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $32 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 18¢ $34 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $74 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $65 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.47 · official $56.47 (match) · 16 history records