Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:05:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9A 0x9a79…6fe5 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+6%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$47
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$28
other 20% +$18
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.8% -18.4% 50% 44% -3.7%
≤30d 36 -19.9% -27.5% 47% 39% -6.7%
≤90d 36 -19.9% -27.5% 47% 39% -6.7%
all 36 -19.9% -27.5% 47% 39% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 39% -6.7%
10% -34.4% 22% -15.7%
15% -40.8% 19% -23.8%
20% -46.6% 11% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage11d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $85 −$19 -23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $70 −$21 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -94%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $84 +$18 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $70 +$14 +20%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan Jun 22 $5 −$2 -34%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $35 +$5 +14%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $52 +$19 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $32 −$7 -21%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $8 −$6 -70%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $29 −$11 -37%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $19 +$21 +111%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $50 +$38 +76%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $36 +$14 +38%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $66 +$11 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $48 −$9 -18%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $38 +$10 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $37 +$2 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 +$10 +38%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $63 −$56 -88%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$2 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $30 −$29 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $52 +$38 +74%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $44 +$8 +19%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 +$21 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings SELL Texas Super Kings 87¢ $35 1h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 77¢ $31 1h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings SELL San Francisco Unicorns 42¢ $31 1h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY San Francisco Unicorns 71¢ $54 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 54¢ $49 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $70 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 37h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland SELL New Zealand 98¢ $103 41h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 80¢ $84 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $84 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $70 2d
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan SELL Uzbekistan 11¢ $4 2d
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Uzbekistan 15¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL India 70¢ $40 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 60¢ $35 3d
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 4d
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 72¢ $52 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 4d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 48¢ $26 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $32 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland SELL Scotland 4¢ $2 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY Scotland 13¢ $8 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $19 5d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $29 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL Ireland 24¢ $40 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 11¢ $19 5d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $88 5d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 56¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records