Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9A 0x9a7d…b021 crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-4%) realized −$133 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$333
7 days+$77
14 days+$183
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$231
other 6% +$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -3.7% -12.9% 51% 38% -6.0%
≤30d 59 +8.2% -2.1% 51% 41% -2.0%
≤90d 59 +8.2% -2.1% 51% 41% -2.0%
all 59 +8.2% -2.1% 51% 41% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 41% -2.0%
10% -11.5% 37% -11.4%
15% -20.1% 32% -19.9%
20% -27.9% 27% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage8d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 67¢ 100¢ $100 $149 +$49 (+49%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $123 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$15 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$35 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$29 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$17 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$50 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$104 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$66 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$23 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$38 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$35 +327%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $111 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $101 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $114 −$31 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $101 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$12 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -93%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $113 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$4 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $17 +$7 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $103 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $102 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $31 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $105 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $102 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $51 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $111 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.24 · official $179.82 (match) · 106 history records