Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:41:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a7f…072a other 368 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,433 (+3%) realized +$1,288 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%157W / 208L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$14
14 days−$11
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$1,349
other 16% −$83
sports 1% +$19
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -4.4% -13.5% 53% 44% -14.3%
≤30d 303 -6.7% -15.6% 38% 32% -19.9%
≤90d 365 -5.1% -14.2% 43% 33% -7.3%
all 365 -5.1% -14.2% 43% 33% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 33% -7.3%
10% -22.4% 28% -16.1%
15% -29.9% 23% -24.2%
20% -36.8% 20% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$1,288
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses157 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)365 / 368
History coverage72d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
ITF Kayseri: Ksenia Smirnova vs Mariia Bergen Mariia Bergen 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-05-27? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-23? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-23? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
World Championships: Slovakia vs. Czechia Slovakia 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
ITF Hurghada: Nada Fouad vs Emma Martellenghi Emma Martellenghi 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado Coleman Wong 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-26? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-28? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Kaitlin Quevedo Guiomar Maristany 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Norbert Gombos Norbert Gombos 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Odisha FC win on 2026-05-21? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$3 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -79%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$26 -85%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$19 +94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$10 -50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$16 +80%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$7 +23%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Liberia vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 $0 +22%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Central African Republic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -92%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +240%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +212%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6 +$2 +34%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $13 +$3 +21%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Sierra Leone vs. Liberia end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 $0 -3%
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Central African Republic win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 $0 -16%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 $0 +11%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $4 12h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $2 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $38 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $39 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 63¢ $37 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $9 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $37 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.60 · official $13.60 (match) · 739 history records