Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9a85…7f4e other 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,718 (-2%) realized −$1,718 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$889now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$33
other 32% −$204
sports 21% −$1,469
culture 6% −$26
economics 2% −$2
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -1.8% -11.2% 5% 0% -11.6%
all 127 -8.6% -17.3% 16% 9% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 9% -11.8%
10% -25.2% 9% -20.2%
15% -32.4% 8% -27.9%
20% -39.1% 6% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$857) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$889
Realized−$1,718
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage132d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $537 $537 +$0 (+0%)
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $353 $353 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,978 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,401 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,821 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,321 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 11 $209 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $589 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $209 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $209 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $209 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 05 $954 −$954 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,890 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $949 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,456 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $319 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $326 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $250 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $383 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $368 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $353 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $475 23h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $475 29h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $507 45h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $508 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $462 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $462 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $475 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $475 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $486 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $486 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $465 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $466 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $537 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $644 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $645 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $864 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $866 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $845 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $846 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $861 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $862 15d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $921 19d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $922 20d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $818 20d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $819 21d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $856 21d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $857 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $889.34 · official $889.34 (match) · 372 history records