Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:55:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a86…84ec weather 536 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (757 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$367 (-1%) realized −$297 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate45%246W / 299L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day756.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,804now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$1,425
crypto 1% +$34
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (757 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 545 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 16% -29.7%
≤30d 545 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 16% -29.7%
≤90d 545 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 16% -29.7%
all 545 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 16% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover756.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 16% -29.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 11% -36.4%
15% -29.5% 10% -42.5%
20% -36.4% 9% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$36 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5,804
Realized−$297
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses246 / 299
Open positions133
Markets (closed)545 / 536
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day756.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 133 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 91¢ 100¢ $364 $398 +$34 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? No 89¢ 84¢ $283 $267 −$16 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? No 95¢ 98¢ $249 $258 +$8 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 18? No 94¢ 85¢ $271 $245 −$26 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $206 $207 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? No 94¢ 92¢ $187 $182 −$4 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? No 95¢ 94¢ $174 $172 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 94¢ 99¢ $148 $156 +$8 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? No 83¢ 92¢ $140 $156 +$15 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? No 95¢ 100¢ $136 $143 +$7 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 97¢ 99¢ $138 $141 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? No 95¢ 98¢ $134 $138 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $136 $138 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $128 $128 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? No 96¢ 94¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $83 $85 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? No 92¢ 93¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 96¢ 93¢ $82 $80 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $73 $74 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? No 96¢ 92¢ $70 $68 −$3 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? No 95¢ 97¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $61 $65 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? No 88¢ 90¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 189 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 14? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on April 27? Jun 18 $0 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6? Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 13? Jun 18 $28 −$56 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 8? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 7? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 17? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 18 $289 −$449 -156%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? Jun 18 $205 −$239 -117%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 12? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 9? Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17? Jun 18 $165 −$165 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 12? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? Jun 18 $296 −$354 -120%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 11? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 23? Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 10? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $5 10m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 43¢ $1 23m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 42¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 30m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 35m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 37m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $15 39m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $18 39m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $6 44m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 82¢ $250 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 81¢ $251 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,803.85 · official $5,804.79 (match) · 3500 history records