Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9a86…9f83
weather · 668 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$145 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$115 · open −$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$110
Realized−$115
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses619 / 41
Open positions7
Markets (closed)660 / 668
Avg bet$31
Trades / day89.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 660 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$35
14 days−$84
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Yes 82¢ 22¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 8m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 13m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $18 18m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 29m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $20 34m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 38m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 38m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 38m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 344 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 6% -9.1%
≤30d 660 -0.6% -10.1% 94% 5% -10.0%
≤90d 660 -0.6% -10.1% 94% 5% -10.0%
all 660 -0.6% -10.1% 94% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover89.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 5% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.69 · official $109.71 (match) · 1473 history records