Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a87…94e9 other 56 markets active 9h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$12
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$16
other 10% +$1
sports 2% +$23
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +8.2% -2.1% 16% 5% -5.2%
≤90d 42 +7.8% -2.5% 26% 14% -7.4%
all 55 +5.8% -4.3% 25% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 11% -9.4%
10% -13.4% 11% -18.1%
15% -21.8% 11% -26.0%
20% -29.5% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage604d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $7 +$12 +158%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $40 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $114 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $54 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $16 +$1 +3%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 +$9 +165%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 +$7 +72%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $9 +$11 +124%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $7 +$4 +48%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $11 +$6 +59%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March? Apr 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 05 $31 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 21 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 04 $21 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $26 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 9h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 11h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 30h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 44h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 8d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $7 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.12 · official $30.12 (match) · 273 history records