Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9A 0x9a87…89ea world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$632 (+5%) realized +$709 · open −$77
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$502per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$1,681
14 days−$1,620
30 days−$1,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$1,487
finance 12% +$517
other 12% +$421
politics 6% +$10
tech 3% −$232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -55.3% -59.6% 20% 20% -64.4%
≤30d 15 -15.1% -23.2% 53% 53% -30.2%
≤90d 22 -12.3% -20.7% 59% 55% -16.1%
all 22 -12.3% -20.7% 59% 55% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 55% -16.1%
10% -28.3% 36% -24.2%
15% -35.2% 18% -31.5%
20% -41.5% 9% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$509) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$265 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$1,523
Realized+$709
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage84d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 63¢ 60¢ $1,600 $1,523 −$77 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $633 −$84 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 15 $404 +$94 +23%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $500 −$471 -94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,030 −$1,030 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $206 −$190 -92%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $400 −$140 -35%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $509 +$201 +39%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $330 +$45 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$54 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $504 +$111 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $305 +$221 +72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $100 +$96 +96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 23 $200 +$31 +15%
Will Lucas Paquetá be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ May 19 $101 +$26 +26%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $41 −$40 -96%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 01 $1,293 +$436 +34%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $313 −$232 -74%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $1,097 +$114 +10%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $922 +$175 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? Apr 01 $223 +$90 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $1,600 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $1,730 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes $8 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $441 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $541 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $533 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 97¢ $498 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $30 4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $500 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $15 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $1,000 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $260 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 76¢ $710 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 28¢ $206 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 53¢ $408 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 10d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 23¢ $100 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $400 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 78¢ $404 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 100¢ $615 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 81¢ $504 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $30 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $300 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $200 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $196 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $100 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,523.45 · official $1,523.45 (match) · 50 history records