Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a8a…5af6 politics 562 markets active 0h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$3,994 (+24%) realized +$3,974 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%214W / 338L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$19
30 days−$2,557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$2,701
politics 34% +$1,286
crypto 11% −$67
world 7% −$175
economics 4% +$335
finance 1% −$138
sports 1% −$71
tech 1% +$97
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 223 -59.9% -63.7% 12% 10% -57.5%
≤90d 255 -46.6% -51.7% 20% 18% -53.5%
all 552 +12.5% +1.8% 39% 34% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 34% +12.9%
10% -8.0% 30% +2.1%
15% -16.9% 27% -7.8%
20% -25.0% 24% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$14 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$3,974
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses214 / 338
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)552 / 562
History coverage265d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 55¢ 54¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $26 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? No 52¢ 60¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+15%)
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? No 34¢ 64¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+87%)
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 78¢ 66¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? No 26¢ 24¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? No 19¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? No 72¢ 68¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? No 26¢ 16¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-40%)
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 51¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Trump say "Best military" or "Greatest military" during Healthcare Affordability Events? No 50¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bernie say "Healthcare" 4+ times in Maine? No 24¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during Wisconsin events? No 43¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 50¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? No 39¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 51¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? No 21¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7PM ET Down 16¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10PM ET Down 40¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Alien" during the next White House Press Briefing? Yes 55¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 42¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? No 12¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Down 50¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Down 49¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Administration" 10+ times during the next White House Press Briefing? No 58¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $12 +$5 +40%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during W Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $20 −$1 -7%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $6 $0 -8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 30 $6 +$12 +195%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7PM ET May 24 $9 −$8 -95%
Will Bernie say "Healthcare" 4+ times in Maine? May 24 $47 −$5 -10%
Will Bernie say "Coffee" in Maine? May 24 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Gold" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? May 22 $23 +$12 +52%
Will Trump say "Oil" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? May 22 $26 +$12 +44%
Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in c May 22 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Trump's remarks not air? May 22 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12AM ET May 22 $8 +$7 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $21 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11PM ET May 22 $28 −$16 -56%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $21 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? May 22 $173 −$110 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 22 $21 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 22 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 22 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10PM ET May 22 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in c May 22 $39 −$1 -2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 21 $2 +$11 +711%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" during events i May 21 $37 −$13 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2PM ET May 20 $20 +$18 +87%
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event? May 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "President" 40+ times during May 19 $5 +$35 +705%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Virus" during the next White May 19 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Go ahead" 5+ times during th May 19 $21 +$52 +242%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times dur May 19 $1 +$3 +257%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Xi" or "Jinping" during the May 19 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Democrat" 3+ times during th May 19 $3 +$37 +1277%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Thing" 10+ times during the May 19 $9 +$4 +41%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the nex May 19 $18 −$15 -82%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Administration" 10+ times du May 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Congratulations" during the May 19 $20 −$9 -45%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3 May 19 $69 +$2 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 3 May 19 $22 −$8 -37%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "Alien" during the next White May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Trump say "Xi" this week? May 19 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Trump say "Best military" or "Greatest military" during Healthcar May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 6? May 18 $40 −$27 -67%
Will Netanyahu say "Antisemitic" or "Antisemitism" 5+ times during add May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? BUY No 26¢ $6 1m
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY No 28¢ $6 5m
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? BUY No 19¢ $10 6m
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 55¢ $11 7m
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? BUY No 26¢ $6 7m
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY No 22¢ $2 7m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 88¢ $26 30m
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 78¢ $15 44m
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? BUY No 34¢ $7 1h
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? BUY No 72¢ $8 1h
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 52¢ $17 1h
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 55¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 5d
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? SELL No 82¢ $16 9d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during W BUY No 43¢ $20 11d
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? BUY No 39¢ $1 11d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during W BUY No 43¢ $2 11d
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? BUY No 58¢ $12 11d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL No 84¢ $19 14d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 85¢ $2 14d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 90¢ $18 14d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 53¢ $5 14d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 55¢ $6 15d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 28¢ $3 15d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 30¢ $5 15d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 30¢ $10 15d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 10¢ $6 15d
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 12¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.64 · official $132.64 (match) · 2218 history records