Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a8b…c2a0 politics 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$1
politics 23% −$1
other 20% $0
crypto 15% +$1
finance 3% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage274d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $36 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 35% and 40%? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $25 $0 +1%
Will Kimmel say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during return show on September Sep 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 22 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 19 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Sep 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 18 $2 $0 +6%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $16 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $14 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 24h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $16 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $27 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $4 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $27 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $3 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 91¢ $25 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 91¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $32 9d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 74¢ $3 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $27 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $27 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 301 history records