Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a8b…4399 sports 52 markets active 8h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-19%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$13
sports 35% +$7
world 9% −$8
crypto 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -5.6% -14.6% 36% 36% -25.2%
≤30d 52 -10.6% -19.1% 35% 35% -27.2%
≤90d 52 -10.6% -19.1% 35% 35% -27.2%
all 52 -10.6% -19.1% 35% 35% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 35% -27.2%
10% -26.8% 35% -34.1%
15% -33.9% 35% -40.5%
20% -40.4% 33% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +64%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -75%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +101%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$1 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$2 +129%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -37%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 14h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $0 14h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $3 37h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 44h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records