Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9A 0x9a8c…b52c sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,267 (-5%) realized −$4,171 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%33W / 40L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,177per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$545est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$953
7 days−$1,153
14 days−$1,153
30 days−$4,681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$3,153
world 3% −$2,407
economics 1% −$55
other 0% +$5
crypto 0% +$129
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -48.1% -53.1% 29% 29% -64.9%
≤90d 24 -29.3% -36.0% 42% 42% -36.8%
all 73 -2.5% -11.8% 45% 42% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 42% -15.3%
10% -20.3% 38% -23.4%
15% -28.0% 36% -30.8%
20% -35.0% 30% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,060) neutral
Persistence
early +33% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$697 vs −$710 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$2,382
Realized−$4,171
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses33 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$545
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage251d
Avg bet$1,177
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 46¢ 44¢ $2,478 $2,382 −$96 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $976 −$953 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1,957 −$1,937 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $2,548 −$2,520 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $430 −$420 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Blockx May 26 $781 +$184 +24%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse May 19 $835 +$1,165 +140%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $740 −$720 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic May 12 $1,248 +$952 +76%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tallon Griekspoor vs Alexander Blockx May 11 $2,023 +$977 +48%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 27 $5,200 −$5,200 -100%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima Apr 27 $1,107 −$1,107 -100%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Apr 27 $1,485 +$1,179 +79%
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alex de Minaur Apr 26 $989 +$1,126 +114%
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton Apr 16 $2,150 −$2,150 -100%
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Apr 16 $5,248 +$1,117 +21%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Arthur Rinderknech Apr 15 $520 −$520 -100%
BMW Open: Marin Cilic vs Daniel Altmaier Apr 15 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Alex Michelsen vs Alexei Popyrin Apr 15 $3,003 −$3,003 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 15 $540 −$540 -100%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Terence Atmane Apr 15 $111 +$44 +40%
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Yannick Hanfmann Apr 14 $1,739 +$1,223 +70%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Machac Apr 02 $1,917 +$1,627 +85%
Miami Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner Mar 27 $500 −$500 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Mar 15 $949 +$4,066 +428%
Swiss Indoors Basel: Joao Fonseca vs Jaume Munar Mar 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Ugo Humbert Mar 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Alexander Bublik vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Mar 10 $70 −$70 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Mar 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexander Zverev Mar 10 $90 −$90 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie Mar 10 $159 −$159 -100%
ASB Classic: Ben Shelton vs Sebastian Baez Mar 10 $546 −$546 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Learner Tien vs Nuno Borges Mar 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Mar 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Mar 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Qatar Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Mar 10 $1,690 −$1,690 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech Mar 10 $16,600 +$688 +4%
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Kamil Majchrzak Mar 08 $14,840 +$1,660 +11%
Delray Beach Open: Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul Feb 18 $1,240 +$444 +36%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 17 $465 −$5 -1%
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Marin Cilic Feb 16 $130 +$80 +61%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10? Feb 11 $45 +$5 +11%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 10 $179 +$5 +3%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 30 $300 +$989 +330%
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien Jan 25 $1,400 +$2,842 +203%
Australian Open Men's: Rinky Hijikata vs Valentin Vacherot Jan 22 $1,000 +$562 +56%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $2,948 −$2,407 -82%
Rolex Paris Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur Nov 01 $80 +$94 +117%
Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik Oct 31 $100 +$127 +127%
Swiss Indoors Basel: Ugo Humbert vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Oct 26 $80 +$115 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 46¢ $2,304 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 45¢ $84 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 44¢ $130 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 19¢ $976 2h
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 39¢ $203 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 66¢ $1,957 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 63¢ $2,548 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Moise Kouame 21¢ $430 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Blockx SELL Alexander Blockx 49¢ $965 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Blockx BUY Alexander Blockx 38¢ $781 22d
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 41¢ $835 29d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 9¢ $740 33d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 56¢ $1,248 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tallon Griekspoor vs Alexander Blockx BUY Alexander Blockx 67¢ $2,023 39d
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 55¢ $1,485 52d
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alex de Minaur BUY Rafael Jodar 46¢ $989 53d
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton BUY Joao Fonseca 65¢ $5,200 61d
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 28¢ $1,107 62d
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Rafael Jodar 82¢ $5,248 62d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton BUY Alexander Blockx 43¢ $1 63d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton BUY Alexander Blockx 43¢ $316 63d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton BUY Alexander Blockx 43¢ $22 63d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton BUY Alexander Blockx 43¢ $4 63d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton BUY Alexander Blockx 43¢ $2 63d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton BUY Alexander Blockx 43¢ $4 63d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton BUY Alexander Blockx 43¢ $4 63d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton BUY Alexander Blockx 43¢ $13 63d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton BUY Alexander Blockx 43¢ $1,529 63d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton BUY Alexander Blockx 43¢ $226 63d
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton BUY Alexander Blockx 43¢ $28 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,381.96 · official $2,381.96 (match) · 284 history records