Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:05:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9A 0x9a8c…8312 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-2%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$452
7 days+$153
14 days+$123
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$3
sports 22% +$120
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -8.0% -16.7% 61% 57% -4.2%
≤30d 27 -9.4% -18.0% 59% 56% -5.3%
≤90d 27 -9.4% -18.0% 59% 56% -5.3%
all 27 -9.4% -18.0% 59% 56% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 56% -5.3%
10% -25.9% 44% -14.4%
15% -33.0% 30% -22.6%
20% -39.6% 15% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$39 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage9d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $517 +$125 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $445 +$72 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $423 +$22 +5%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $291 +$132 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $190 +$101 +53%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $186 −$156 -84%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $116 −$81 -70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 −$42 -72%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$7 +29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $55 −$15 -28%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $46 −$4 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$5 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 −$89 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $59 +$31 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $640 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $517 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $516 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $445 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $423 15h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $423 20h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $291 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $162 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $186 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 52¢ $59 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 53¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $24 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 30¢ $16 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 71¢ $39 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 61¢ $40 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 61¢ $40 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.00 · official $10.00 (match) · 58 history records