Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a8d…2218 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$776 (+36%) realized +$780 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$968
14 days+$801
30 days+$801
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$737
sports 3% +$65
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +238.6% +206.4% 69% 69% +47.0%
≤30d 48 +37.6% +24.5% 38% 35% +26.2%
≤90d 48 +37.6% +24.5% 38% 35% +26.2%
all 48 +37.6% +24.5% 38% 35% +26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.5% 35% +26.2%
10% ← realistic here +12.6% 33% +14.1%
15% +1.7% 33% +3.1%
20% -8.3% 25% -7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +126% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$30 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$780
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage14d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $45 +$75 +165%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $123 +$47 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$163 +359%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $508 −$497 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $183 +$96 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $62 +$844 +1354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $182 +$83 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$57 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $162 +$78 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $53 +$113 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$26 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$25 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$82 +528%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 09 $59 +$33 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $29 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $101 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 05 $83 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 05 $44 +$29 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 05 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 37¢ $45 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 0¢ $1 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $73 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $73 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $73 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $73 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $72 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $73 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $73 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $68 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $68 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.43 · official $46.43 (match) · 310 history records