Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a8e…9408 sports 721 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,168 (+1%) realized +$878 · open +$290
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%359W / 346L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$2,887est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,753now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,868
other 1% +$128
world 1% +$198
politics 0% +$15
tech 0% −$48
crypto 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -4.8% -13.9% 59% 52% -9.4%
≤30d 234 +7.1% -3.1% 56% 50% -1.9%
≤90d 705 -0.9% -10.4% 51% 47% -10.9%
all 705 -0.9% -10.4% 51% 47% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 47% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 42% -19.4%
15% -26.8% 36% -27.2%
20% -34.0% 26% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$182 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$2,753
Realized+$878
Unrealized+$290
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses359 / 346
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$2,887
Open positions19
Markets (closed)705 / 721
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$247
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 82¢ 87¢ $328 $349 +$21 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $50 $200 +$150 (+298%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $178 $197 +$19 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 80¢ 71¢ $200 $178 −$22 (-11%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 89¢ 86¢ $178 $171 −$7 (-4%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Flame Team 40¢ 100¢ $50 $125 +$75 (+150%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 52¢ 61¢ $105 $122 +$17 (+16%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 67¢ 79¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs LGD Gaming 88¢ 96¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner LGD Gaming 83¢ 86¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner LGD Gaming 83¢ 86¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 85¢ 98¢ $85 $98 +$13 (+16%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 89¢ 89¢ $89 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 321 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group A Jun 17 $264 −$264 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $91 +$9 +9%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $131 −$130 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $180 +$20 +11%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$50 +100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $126 +$104 +83%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $95 +$6 +6%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $82 +$47 +57%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 +$13 +16%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$27 +27%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $157 +$43 +28%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $150 +$50 +33%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $97 +$25 +26%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $223 −$172 -77%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $127 +$318 +250%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $148 −$90 -61%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $202 −$67 -33%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $271 −$2 -1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $237 +$114 +48%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $85 +$15 +18%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $245 +$95 +39%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $62 −$61 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $139 +$35 +25%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $100 +$100 +100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $269 −$170 -63%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $66 +$34 +52%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $585 −$73 -12%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -96%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $110 +$40 +36%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $110 +$55 +49%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $61 +$39 +64%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $113 +$15 +13%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $325 +$69 +21%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $108 +$77 +71%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $204 +$106 +52%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 15 $102 −$39 -38%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $132 +$52 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 40¢ $51 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 3¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 88¢ $88 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 34¢ $31 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 71¢ $101 4h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 20¢ $20 5h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 34¢ $31 5h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 35¢ $51 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 82¢ $101 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame BUY LGD Gaming 88¢ $100 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 83¢ $101 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 83¢ $101 8h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $53 8h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $13 9h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $8 9h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $105 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 9h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $101 10h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Ivory 50¢ $50 10h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 90¢ $180 10h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 94¢ $82 11h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 94¢ $4 11h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 94¢ $9 11h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 10¢ $21 11h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 50¢ $50 11h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 56¢ $35 11h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Ivory 65¢ $20 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,753.09 · official $2,753.09 (match) · 3500 history records