Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:00:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9A 0x9a92…bc8c crypto 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$5 (-17%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$53
other 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +272.6% +237.1% 100% 100% +237.1%
≤30d 3 +58.5% +43.4% 67% 33% +160.1%
≤90d 3 +58.5% +43.4% 67% 33% +160.1%
all 3 +58.5% +43.4% 67% 33% +160.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.4% 33% +160.1%
10% +29.7% 33% +135.2%
15% +17.1% 33% +112.5%
20% +5.7% 33% +91.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +188% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +188% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$5 · ×5.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.59 per $1 lost it wins $11.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage17d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$58 +273%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 29 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 16d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 5 history records