Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a93…d3aa crypto 502 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$406 (-7%) realized −$406 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%206W / 296L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$5
14 days−$7
30 days−$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$410
weather 3% −$66
sports 3% −$3
other 1% $0
politics 1% +$4
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -1.7% -11.1% 56% 55% -8.9%
≤30d 362 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 49% -16.2%
≤90d 502 -19.6% -27.2% 41% 39% -17.0%
all 502 -19.6% -27.2% 41% 39% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 39% -17.0%
10% -34.2% 33% -25.0%
15% -40.5% 27% -32.2%
20% -46.4% 22% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$406
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses206 / 296
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)502 / 502
History coverage68d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 502 Trades
no open positions (251 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$13 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +208%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$9 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$6 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $0 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $6 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 992 history records