Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9aa1…5fe6 sports 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-3%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate52%54W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$1
14 days+$10
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$6
other 17% −$20
crypto 5% −$6
finance 4% −$6
politics 0% −$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -14.0% -22.2% 53% 35% -8.5%
≤30d 78 -7.5% -16.3% 53% 38% -10.4%
≤90d 82 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 37% -11.0%
all 103 -11.8% -20.2% 52% 33% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 33% -12.5%
10% -27.9% 26% -20.9%
15% -34.8% 17% -28.5%
20% -41.2% 12% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses54 / 49
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage152d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $30 +$1 +4%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $20 +$1 +5%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 −$6 -58%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $10 −$1 -14%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $12 +$1 +8%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $12 +$2 +14%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $10 +$3 +30%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $3 $0 +15%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $5 −$1 -13%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $15 +$5 +30%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$1 -7%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $28 +$8 +27%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $8 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +60%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $29 +$8 +29%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 −$1 -11%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$12 -59%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 +$4 +43%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 −$1 -7%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$7 +69%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $15 +$3 +20%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$2 -21%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $20 −$1 -4%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $4 $0 +7%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$6 +32%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea Jun 23 $15 +$8 +55%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $9 +$2 +18%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -88%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -70%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 $0 -17%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 $0 -13%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 $0 -11%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 $0 +23%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06-22 Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$2 +24%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +325%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $21 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $4 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 82¢ $9 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $20 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $12 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $2 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 24h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL No 73¢ $3 25h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 26h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $3 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 26h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 30h
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 30h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 30h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL No 36¢ $4 31h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 40¢ $5 31h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 41h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $15 44h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 86¢ $16 44h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $15 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 206 history records