Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aa2…3620 crypto 337 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,051 (-10%) realized −$1,048 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%102W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$209
7 days+$663
14 days+$498
30 days+$650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$570
other 32% −$195
sports 25% −$346
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +160.7% +135.9% 64% 64% +54.8%
≤30d 76 -13.2% -21.5% 32% 26% +14.1%
≤90d 171 -5.9% -14.9% 29% 25% -19.1%
all 336 -8.2% -17.0% 30% 29% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 29% -20.5%
10% -24.9% 27% -28.1%
15% -32.2% 25% -35.1%
20% -38.8% 22% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$24 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$1,048
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses102 / 234
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)336 / 337
History coverage103d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 23¢ 22¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 22 $41 +$11 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$89 +88%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$107 +1044%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $31 +$74 +242%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $455 +$265 +58%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$66 +644%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$133 +66%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 +$25 +81%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$31 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $204 +$14 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$16 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $203 +$151 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 31 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 31 $5 +$14 +266%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $10 +$11 +102%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 +$136 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 28 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 28 $26 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $39 +$21 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $32 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $41 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners SELL Over 73¢ $51 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $41 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $191 24h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 24h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $105 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $490 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 72¢ $230 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 62¢ $202 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $76 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 6d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $335 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $55 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $61 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 54¢ $30 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.39 · official $37.39 (match) · 641 history records