Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aa5…e01b sports 358 markets active 2h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,112 (-7%) realized −$4,417 · open −$695
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%130W / 224L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1,095est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$601
7 days−$228
14 days−$228
30 days−$1,410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$6,632
other 11% +$659
finance 4% −$340
world 1% −$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -25.8% -32.8% 31% 31% -24.7%
≤30d 39 -5.0% -14.1% 36% 36% -30.1%
≤90d 354 -0.8% -10.2% 37% 36% -17.4%
all 354 -0.8% -10.2% 37% 36% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 36% -17.4%
10% -18.8% 36% -25.3%
15% -26.7% 36% -32.5%
20% -33.9% 36% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$276 vs −$187 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$582
Realized−$4,417
Unrealized−$695
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses130 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1,095
Open positions4
Markets (closed)354 / 358
History coverage339d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 18¢ 11¢ $800 $503 −$297 (-37%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $178 $43 −$134 (-76%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $200 $26 −$174 (-87%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $100 $10 −$90 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 129 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $96 −$94 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $97 −$95 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $97 −$95 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $87 −$86 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 +$184 +181%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $71 +$75 +105%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $76 +$142 +185%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $246 +$231 +94%
Chisinau: Filip Jianu vs Franco Agamenone May 28 $301 +$96 +32%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $488 −$480 -98%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 May 26 $500 −$490 -98%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5 May 26 $302 −$296 -98%
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Maxime Janvier May 26 $304 +$200 +66%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $154 −$150 -97%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5 May 25 $102 +$107 +105%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: Both Teams to Score May 25 $47 +$106 +226%
Tromsø IL vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $153 −$150 -98%
CSyD Macará vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 1.5 May 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will CSyD Macará win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $132 −$130 -98%
FC Volendam vs. Telstar 1963: O/U 2.5 May 17 $254 +$285 +112%
SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5 May 17 $249 −$245 -98%
Odense BK vs. Vejle BK: O/U 2.5 May 17 $198 −$195 -98%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $255 +$150 +59%
Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5 May 17 $91 −$89 -98%
Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 May 17 $102 +$140 +138%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $194 −$190 -98%
Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5 May 17 $173 −$170 -98%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $103 +$465 +450%
Will Reilac Shiga win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $102 +$403 +393%
Reilac Shiga vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū: O/U 2.5 May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Reilac Shiga vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū: O/U 1.5 May 17 $132 −$130 -98%
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5 May 17 $51 +$81 +159%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $92 +$156 +170%
CD Nacional vs. Vitória SC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $204 +$307 +150%
Granada CF vs. Burgos CF: O/U 0.5 May 16 $102 +$192 +188%
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs. SD Eibar: O/U 3.5 May 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5 May 16 $39 +$45 +116%
FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 1.5 May 16 $165 −$162 -98%
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs. SD Eibar: O/U 1.5 May 16 $153 +$346 +226%
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $203 +$250 +123%
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $193 −$190 -98%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashiwa Reysol: Both Teams to Score May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 1.5 May 16 $224 −$220 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $29 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $67 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $97 3h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $97 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $87 25h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $286 40h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 40h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 40h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $92 41h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $71 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $218 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $76 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 87¢ $477 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $184 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $826 18d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $488 19d
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $500 20d
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $302 20d
Chisinau: Filip Jianu vs Franco Agamenone BUY Filip Jianu 23¢ $97 20d
Chisinau: Filip Jianu vs Franco Agamenone SELL Franco Agamenone 74¢ $381 20d
Chisinau: Filip Jianu vs Franco Agamenone SELL Franco Agamenone 70¢ $15 20d
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Maxime Janvier SELL Radu Albot 99¢ $503 20d
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Maxime Janvier BUY Radu Albot 59¢ $304 20d
Chisinau: Filip Jianu vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 37¢ $204 20d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 21d
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 10¢ $154 21d
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.26 · official $582.26 (match) · 620 history records