Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aa8…5e72 weather 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$41 (-8%) realized −$42 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$58
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -18.7% -26.4% 7% 0% -20.1%
≤30d 17 -12.2% -20.5% 24% 6% -19.2%
≤90d 17 -12.2% -20.5% 24% 6% -19.2%
all 17 -12.2% -20.5% 24% 6% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 6% -19.2%
10% -28.1% 6% -26.9%
15% -35.1% 6% -34.0%
20% -41.4% 0% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage10d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Yes 67¢ 86¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $108 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $32 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $67 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 25 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Jun 24 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 23 $63 −$6 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? Jun 23 $19 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $38 −$28 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 22 $35 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 22 $24 −$12 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? SELL No 68¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 71¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? SELL No 69¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 71¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? SELL No 72¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 72¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL No 53¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 52¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL No 54¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 54¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL No 42¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY No 42¢ $8 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 54¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 54¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 54¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 54¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 55¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL No 48¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY No 48¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 48¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL No 46¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY No 46¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL No 48¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY No 48¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.59 · official $2.59 (match) · 159 history records