Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aa9…0c95 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% $0
other 31% −$21
politics 15% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 3% +$2
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -3.0% -12.3% 20% 10% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -3.0% -12.3% 20% 10% -9.6%
all 39 -4.2% -13.3% 31% 8% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 8% -11.6%
10% -21.6% 3% -20.0%
15% -29.2% 3% -27.8%
20% -36.1% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage446d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $96 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $44 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $107 +$5 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $3 −$1 -31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $11 −$2 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $2 +$1 +21%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 13 $4 +$2 +37%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 19 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $21 +$2 +10%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 25 $18 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 02 $0 $0 +11%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $23 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 31 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $6 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $23 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $18 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $48 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $34 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $35 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $12 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records