Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aab…ad26 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$11 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$2
other 25% +$1
politics 5% $0
crypto 5% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 21 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 21 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 0% -8.7%
all 51 -1.4% -10.8% 43% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.0%
10% -19.3% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage466d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 93¢ 84¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-10%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $77 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $35 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $33 +$3 +10%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $30 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $150m? Jul 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on July 6 at 5PM ET? Jul 06 $1 $0 -28%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $1 $0 -8%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $24 $0 -0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 22 $2 $0 +7%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 22 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23? May 21 $11 $0 -1%
Will 'The Colors Within' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Year Award for May 20 $11 $0 -2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 28 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $37 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $37 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $19 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $7 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $9 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $16 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $25 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.41 · official $33.40 (match) · 170 history records