Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:34:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

9A 0x9aad…0830 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$69 (-19%) realized −$69 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate62%16W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit93%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$16

7 days−$16

14 days−$16

30 days−$16

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)-3.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+68.6%	+52.6%	50%	50%	-38.7%
≤30d	2	+68.6%	+52.6%	50%	50%	-38.7%
≤90d	2	+68.6%	+52.6%	50%	50%	-38.7%
all	26	+7.2%	-3.0%	62%	58%	-21.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.0%	58%	-21.0%
10%	-12.3%	54%	-28.6%
15%	-20.8%	38%	-35.5%
20%	-28.5%	19%	-41.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% too few recent

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +16% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.67 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized−$69

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses16 / 10

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)26 / 27

History coverage123d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	T1	66¢	100¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+51%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 29	$41	−$41	-100%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner	Jun 29	$10	+$24	+237%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner	Mar 05	$12	−$12	-100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner	Mar 05	$8	+$4	+47%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Mar 05	$15	−$15	-100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	Mar 05	$10	−$10	-100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Mar 04	$25	−$25	-100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Mar 04	$37	+$11	+29%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner	Mar 04	$1	+$1	+127%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner	Mar 04	$12	−$12	-100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Mar 04	$20	+$8	+39%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Mar 04	$16	+$8	+51%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner	Mar 01	$10	+$5	+49%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	Mar 01	$2	+$1	+26%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner	Mar 01	$20	+$6	+30%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner	Mar 01	$20	+$4	+18%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Feb 28	$2	$0	-0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	Feb 28	$15	−$14	-92%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner	Feb 28	$10	+$5	+45%
LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	Feb 27	$28	+$7	+24%
LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner	Feb 27	$10	+$4	+36%
LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs	Feb 27	$5	$0	+4%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Feb 27	$10	+$5	+53%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Feb 27	$10	−$9	-94%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Feb 26	$1	+$2	+164%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs	Feb 26	$5	$0	-5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	SELL T1	99¢	$14	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	66¢	$10	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner	SELL T1	100¢	$34	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	29¢	$10	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$41	3d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner	BUY Anyones Legend	68¢	$12	115d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner	SELL Anyones Legend	97¢	$12	115d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner	BUY Anyones Legend	66¢	$8	115d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Anyones Legend	63¢	$15	115d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	BUY Anyones Legend	59¢	$10	115d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	SELL Bilibili Gaming	100¢	$31	116d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Bilibili Gaming	66¢	$20	116d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner	BUY JD Gaming	3¢	$1	116d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner	BUY JD Gaming	31¢	$10	116d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner	BUY JD Gaming	35¢	$1	116d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	SELL Bilibili Gaming	92¢	$28	116d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	66¢	$20	116d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	SELL Bilibili Gaming	100¢	$25	116d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	66¢	$16	116d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	SELL Bilibili Gaming	56¢	$16	116d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Bilibili Gaming	56¢	$16	116d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	59¢	$10	116d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Bilibili Gaming	67¢	$15	116d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	44¢	$1	119d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner	SELL G2 Esports	91¢	$15	119d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner	BUY G2 Esports	61¢	$10	119d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	29¢	$3	119d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	23¢	$2	119d
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner	SELL Gen.G	96¢	$26	119d
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner	BUY Gen.G	74¢	$20	119d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.87 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records