Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9A 0x9aae…e69d other 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$21 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate76%167W / 52L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$64
14 days+$69
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$75
politics 22% +$38
economics 18% +$16
crypto 17% −$1
world 12% +$30
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 40% -7.3%
≤30d 51 -14.7% -22.8% 39% 18% -8.2%
≤90d 86 -8.3% -17.0% 62% 10% -8.7%
all 219 -3.6% -12.8% 76% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 4% -9.5%
10% -21.1% 3% -18.1%
15% -28.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses167 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)219 / 223
History coverage249d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $88 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $144 $127 −$17 (-12%)
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Waymo launch in Washington, DC by December 31 2026? Jun 29 $60 +$24 +40%
Will Waymo launch in Sacramento, CA by December 31 2026? Jun 29 $3 $0 -6%
Will Waymo launch in Chicago, IL by December 31 2026? Jun 29 $60 +$14 +24%
Will Waymo launch in Baltimore, MD by December 31 2026? Jun 29 $61 +$11 +17%
Will LAB dip to $12 before 2027? Jun 29 $88 +$17 +19%
Will LAB dip to $14 before 2027? Jun 29 $2 −$1 -53%
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 Jun 28 $148 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $2,000 $0 +0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 27 $208 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 21 $652 +$5 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Global Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $167 $0 -0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? Jun 08 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 08 $212 +$11 +5%
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 7? Jun 08 $0 $0 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 7? Jun 08 $0 $0 -52%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Verso Time - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 6? Jun 08 $150 $0 -0%
Rainbow Six Siege: My Queen vs POZY - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: Verso Time (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: SRG (-2.5) vs Team Vamos (+2.5) Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: My Queen (-1.5) vs POZY (+1.5) Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MP Jun 08 $1 $0 -38%
Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs One Coin (+1.5) Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) Jun 08 $0 $0 -77%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Contin Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-6.5) vs Monte (+6.5) Jun 08 $1 $0 -27%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 -43%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Verso Time - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $0 $0 -3%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $1.9B? Jun 07 $324 −$1 -0%
Rainbow Six Siege: My Queen vs POZY (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group St Jun 07 $0 $0 -3%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) Jun 07 $0 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -32%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 07 $5 +$2 +48%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 07 $1 +$1 +113%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +16%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $90 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $85 $0 +0%
Will Ana Luz Acevedo-Cabrera advance from the CA-19 primary election? Jun 02 $9 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 01 $98 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Waymo launch in Washington, DC by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 4m
Will Waymo launch in Sacramento, CA by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 4m
Will Waymo launch in Sacramento, CA by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 5m
Will Waymo launch in Chicago, IL by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 7m
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $88 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $144 1h
Will Waymo launch in Washington, DC by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 1h
Will Waymo launch in Chicago, IL by December 31 2026? BUY No 68¢ $0 1h
Will Waymo launch in Sacramento, CA by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will Waymo launch in Washington, DC by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 1h
Will Waymo launch in Baltimore, MD by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $39 1h
Will Waymo launch in Chicago, IL by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $28 1h
Will Waymo launch in Washington, DC by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $66 1h
Will Waymo launch in Chicago, IL by December 31 2026? BUY No 62¢ $14 1h
Will Waymo launch in Baltimore, MD by December 31 2026? BUY No 59¢ $20 1h
Will Waymo launch in Baltimore, MD by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 1h
Will Waymo launch in Chicago, IL by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 1h
Will Waymo launch in Washington, DC by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 1h
Will LAB dip to $12 before 2027? BUY No 12¢ $13 2h
Will LAB dip to $14 before 2027? SELL No $1 2h
Will LAB dip to $14 before 2027? BUY No $2 2h
Will LAB dip to $12 before 2027? BUY Yes 70¢ $75 3h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 SELL Yes 37¢ $12 12h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 SELL Yes 37¢ $9 12h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 SELL Yes 37¢ $15 12h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 SELL Yes 37¢ $7 17h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 SELL Yes 37¢ $104 17h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 BUY Yes 37¢ $148 18h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $208 38h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $208 39h
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.88 · official $157.69 (match) · 1017 history records