trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 14? | Yes | 97¢ | 99¢ | $100 | $102 | +$2 (+2%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $93 | $96 | +$3 (+3%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $50 | $52 | +$2 (+3%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $50 | $52 | +$2 (+3%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? | Yes | 86¢ | 0¢ | $24 | $0 | −$24 (-100%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? | Yes | 95¢ | 0¢ | $98 | $0 | −$98 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? | Jun 13 | $50 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? | Jun 13 | $50 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $93 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? | Jun 12 | $36 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? | Jun 12 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 9? | Jun 11 | $24 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 9? | Jun 11 | $26 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 9? | Jun 11 | $98 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? | Jun 11 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 9? | Jun 11 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 8? | Jun 09 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? | Jun 07 | $98 | −$98 | -100% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 6? | Jun 06 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 4? | Jun 06 | $6 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 5? | Jun 06 | $19 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 5? | Jun 06 | $50 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? | Jun 04 | $24 | −$24 | -100% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Mar 05 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Dec 09 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -4.9% | -13.9% | 92% | 0% | -16.4% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 88% | 0% | -16.6% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 88% | 0% | -16.6% |
| all | 19 | -12.8% | -21.1% | 84% | 0% | -23.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.1% | 0% | -23.6% |
| 10% | -28.7% | 0% | -30.9% |
| 15% | -35.6% | 0% | -37.6% |
| 20% | -41.9% | 0% | -43.7% |