Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ab3…08cd sports 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-11%) realized −$69 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%106W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$54
14 days−$73
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$88
other 15% −$1
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -8.9% -17.6% 41% 41% -25.8%
≤30d 255 -12.2% -20.5% 42% 41% -21.1%
≤90d 255 -12.2% -20.5% 42% 41% -21.1%
all 255 -12.2% -20.5% 42% 41% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 41% -21.1%
10% -28.1% 41% -28.7%
15% -35.1% 40% -35.6%
20% -41.4% 39% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses106 / 149
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)255 / 260
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 64¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$4 +134%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +226%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 +$6 +123%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 +$10 +474%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 2m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $4 41m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $2 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $5 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $5 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $3 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $4 18h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $5 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 20h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $3 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 28h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $3 28h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 40h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $5 40h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 40h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $3 40h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $5 40h
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 40h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 43h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 43h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $3 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.40 · official $12.40 (match) · 382 history records