Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:43:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9A 0x9ab4…7177 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$142 (+17%) realized +$160 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$116
sports 4% −$15
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 43 +14.9% +3.9% 53% 51% +4.2%
all 43 +14.9% +3.9% 53% 51% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 51% +4.2%
10% -6.0% 49% -5.8%
15% -15.1% 47% -14.9%
20% -23.4% 37% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$160
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage70d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? Yes 58¢ 39¢ $35 $24 −$11 (-33%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 45¢ 14¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $56 −$55 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $78 +$14 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $66 −$65 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $65 +$43 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $65 +$58 +89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $65 +$47 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 23 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $50 +$43 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$8 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 22 $29 +$42 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 22 $33 +$17 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 21 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 21 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 21 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 22? Apr 21 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $48 +$39 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 20 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 20 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 20 $9 +$8 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $5 +$6 +118%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 19 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 19 $2 +$21 +1055%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 19 $3 +$2 +71%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 19 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 19 $15 +$5 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $36 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 67¢ $56 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 4? SELL Yes 63¢ $92 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 50¢ $78 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 75¢ $66 54d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 27? SELL Yes 93¢ $108 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 54¢ $65 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 26? BUY Yes 51¢ $65 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 56¢ $65 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $15 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $10 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $29 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $33 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.76 · official $26.76 (match) · 73 history records