Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9A 0x9ab7…9aab sports 106 markets active 6h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%54W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$5
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$2
weather 35% +$54
crypto 19% −$48
other 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 45% -5.3%
≤30d 89 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 43% -10.2%
≤90d 101 +15.3% +4.3% 53% 40% -18.0%
all 101 +15.3% +4.3% 53% 40% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 40% -18.0%
10% -5.7% 37% -25.8%
15% -14.8% 33% -33.0%
20% -23.2% 31% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 56% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses54 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)101 / 106
History coverage68d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 44¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 43¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 37¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$2 +172%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 $0 -15%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +146%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $2 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +146%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 36¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY HyperSpirit 46¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY HOTU 44¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY G-Time 49¢ $1 7h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner BUY WinteR SquadronS 19¢ $1 7h
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) BUY Grey Trac 48¢ $1 7h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) BUY Sashi Esport 46¢ $1 7h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 40¢ $1 8h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 39¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 44¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY Mentality Monster 59¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 41¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 33¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 45¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 46¢ $1 12h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $1 18h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Heretics 48¢ $1 18h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 43¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 26¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $1 21h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 46¢ $1 23h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 42¢ $1 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $1 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 38¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.48 · official $4.48 (match) · 199 history records