Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9A 0x9ab9…18ed world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$1
politics 23% $0
sports 18% $0
culture 4% $0
other 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 0% -9.4%
all 32 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage290d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 61¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $83 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $84 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $6 $0 -8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $19 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $19 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Oct 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $4 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 19 $2 $0 +20%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Sep 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $41 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $35 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $6 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $42 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $2 39h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $11 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $30 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $42 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $39 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $39 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $1 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $29 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $41 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $23 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $23 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.52 · official $41.52 (match) · 130 history records