Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9A 0x9abb…3f96 sports 1165 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,097 (-2%) realized −$3,099 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%711W / 437L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$841est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$372
7 days+$505
14 days−$3,039
30 days−$3,284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$3,674
other 18% −$176
world 10% −$293
politics 3% +$281
crypto 2% −$88
tech 1% +$57
weather 0% −$23
finance 0% −$24
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 +4.3% -5.7% 66% 59% -6.7%
≤30d 436 -5.9% -14.9% 64% 54% -13.6%
≤90d 1148 -7.6% -16.4% 62% 48% -11.5%
all 1148 -7.6% -16.4% 62% 48% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 48% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 31% -20.0%
15% -31.7% 18% -27.7%
20% -38.4% 11% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$54 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized−$3,099
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses711 / 437
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$841
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1148 / 1165
History coverage86d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen FC Bayern Munchen 59¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $31 +$14 +45%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $101 +$17 +17%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $20 +$6 +32%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Wil Jun 17 $36 +$86 +242%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $827 +$90 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $763 +$64 +8%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $152 +$44 +29%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $436 +$98 +22%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ assists Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$13 +64%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $448 −$264 -59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $101 +$29 +29%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $86 +$39 +46%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $101 −$54 -53%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $101 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $445 +$80 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $76 +$21 +28%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $30 −$27 -89%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $103 +$5 +5%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 16 $133 +$66 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$91 -90%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $248 +$89 +36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $253 −$147 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +71%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $50 +$14 +28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $238 +$77 +32%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $102 +$1 +1%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $124 +$11 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $84 −$83 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 64¢ $44 35m
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Hubert Hurkacz 91¢ $118 1h
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY FC Bayern Munchen 59¢ $20 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 77¢ $101 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $125 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up $5 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 AND Wi BUY 19¢ $15 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 98¢ $110 2h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $27 3h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 83¢ $101 8h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 43¢ $31 8h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 32¢ $20 8h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 80¢ $101 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 8h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $100 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $827 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $827 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $763 14h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $196 14h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY No 82¢ $25 15h
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ assists SELL No $0 15h
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ assists BUY No $5 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 16h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 77¢ $122 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $335 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL No $0 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418.15 · official $442.99 · 2750 history records