Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9A 0x9abd…375b other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$61 (+20%) realized +$63 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$68
crypto 10% $0
sports 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.7% +2.9% 75% 75% +20.0%
≤30d 4 +13.7% +2.9% 75% 75% +20.0%
≤90d 4 +13.7% +2.9% 75% 75% +20.0%
all 4 +13.7% +2.9% 75% 75% +20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 75% +20.0%
10% -7.0% 75% +8.6%
15% -15.9% 50% -1.9%
20% -24.2% 50% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$10 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.93 per $1 lost it wins $6.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.37 · official $118.37 (match) · 11 history records