Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ac0…d756 politics 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$763 (+16%) realized +$628 · open +$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate67%14W / 7L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$234
politics 29% +$393
crypto 8% −$14
world 4% +$9
sports 2% −$75
tech 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -36.1% -42.2% 50% 50% -27.4%
≤30d 5 -0.6% -10.0% 60% 60% -10.2%
≤90d 19 -2.9% -12.2% 63% 58% +4.4%
all 21 -1.2% -10.6% 67% 57% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 57% +4.6%
10% -19.2% 48% -5.4%
15% -27.0% 29% -14.6%
20% -34.1% 10% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$27 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.18 per $1 lost it wins $3.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$1,484
Realized+$628
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses14 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)21 / 37
History coverage114d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No 46¢ 52¢ $796 $896 +$100 (+13%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 72¢ 74¢ $154 $158 +$5 (+3%)
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? No 69¢ 81¢ $96 $113 +$17 (+18%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $96 $103 +$6 (+7%)
Will $2.50 Coin become law this year? No 72¢ 69¢ $92 $88 −$3 (-4%)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? No 70¢ 74¢ $76 $82 +$5 (+7%)
Obama federally charged before 2027? No 82¢ 95¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+16%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? No 45¢ 52¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump visit South Carolina in 2026? Yes 50¢ 53¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Yes 47¢ 84¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+77%)
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? Yes 40¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? No 86¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Discord IPO before 2027? No 26¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+62%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $48 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 16, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $30 −$28 -96%
Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin in 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? May 19 $45 +$14 +31%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 19 $285 −$6 -2%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? May 15 $290 +$89 +31%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? May 12 $855 +$328 +38%
Will Donald Trump visit Alaska in 2026? May 11 $103 −$69 -66%
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Apr 27 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year? Apr 25 $4 +$3 +72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -93%
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026? Apr 24 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Donald Trump visit Nevada in 2026? Apr 20 $111 +$47 +42%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Apr 19 $14 +$5 +33%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 11 $513 −$7 -1%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 04 $110 +$48 +43%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2026? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Mar 25 $99 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs The Last Resort (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Mar 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Mar 10 $53 +$5 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 05 $152 +$33 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 16, 11AM ET? BUY No 19¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin above 65,600 on June 16, 11AM ET? BUY No 47¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 11AM ET? BUY No 77¢ $48 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? SELL No 95¢ $14 2d
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? SELL No 95¢ $14 2d
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? SELL No 85¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin in 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $15 15d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 21d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 21d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 21d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 21d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 21d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 21d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 21d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 21d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 21d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 22d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 23d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 23d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 23d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 23d
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 24d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 42¢ $8 25d
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? BUY No 42¢ $6 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,483.52 · official $1,482.96 (match) · 465 history records